24 April 2008

Anwar's political bluff

Since the last few months PR's politicians has been hinting crossover of BN's MPs to PR. They say this katak lompat scenario will topple the BN government and make them the new king of politics in Malaysia. Most die hard PR supporters are so confident that Anwar will be PM before end of this year. There is an air of invincibility and a feeling of deja vu among them. Even their walk has an air of spring in them but whatever it is, political pundits think this is all wishful thinking.

Lets see the facts:
  • PR needs another 30 MPs for a simple majority to overturn BN
  • Sabah and Sarawak has 55 MPs to offer. It's unlikely any crossover from West Malaysia
  • There must be great incentives for them to crossover. Talk of 20% oil royalties and DPM post has been mentioned
If PR has the 30 MPs in their pocket, how will the power grab done? Off course the first strategy is to put up a vote of no confidence from 82 PR MPs during Parliament's first session. The 30 BN MPs will join them and then jump ship.

BN can also put up first a new law banning lompat katak (doing an ibrahim ali, so to speak). Changing a constitution takes time and many procedures in Parliament. BN MPs surely will not be happy if such back door maneuvering is done in Parliament and for them losing power undemocratically. Heck, a state of emergency might be declared too.

So, it is not that easy to grab power using the back door way. It is extremely complex and outright dangerous. The 50% odd rakyat who voted BN will not like it either. A disgruntle person can do unthinkable things.

Why don't PR take over the government using the proper channel in PUR13 year 2012?

Can they wait that long?

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